Margie Morris

Treasury prices, although lower this mornig on concerns that record low yields may curb demand for this week’s $99 Bln auction of coupon-bearing debt are expected to continue to rally as investors move into safe U.S. Government debt as the concerns over Greece’s future in the Eurozone contine to build.

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In terms of economic releases today the retail sales figure for April will be released shortly and is expected to show that sales increased at a more tempered pace than the previous month. Retail sales (less autos) are expected to have increased by 0.2% in April down from 0.8% in March. It is believed that the milder winter weather could have accelerated spring sales into earlier months. The CPI index will also be released this morning and the index (less food & energy) is expected to remain at +0.2% month over month in equities. Futures are pointing towards a higher opening bell following rallies in overseas markets.

While the situation in Europe remains in the spotlight as Greece attempts to form a new goverment, there are a number of eonomic releases this morning. April PPI numbers will be released at 8:30 AM and the University of Michigan Confidence (May) at 9:55 AM.
J. P. Morgan announced a $28 Bln trading loss. This news along with the ongoing concerns about Greece has financial stocks and other equities under pressure.

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The situation in Greece continued to hold investor’s attention on Wednesday. Treasuries were higher on the day and $2.4 Bln 10-year auction was sold at a record low yield of 1.855%. Threre are a number of items on the economic calendar at 8:30 AM today including Initial Jobless claims. (which initial #s show a fall of 1K to 367K) At 1:00 PM. Threre is a $16 Bln 30-year Treasury auction schedule. Fed Chairman Bernanke and Minneapolis Fed President Kocherlakota are also both scheduled to speak.

The trend continues as the situation in Greece had stocks lower and Treasuries higher on Tuesday. Many are concerned Greece will not be able to implement economic reforms after the failed government coalition attempts. The situation in Greece seems to have overshadowed some positive economic numbers from Tuesday. Later today, there is a $24 Bln 10 year Treasury auction at 1:00 PM. Minneapolis Fed Presdident Kocherlackota and Philadelphia Fed President Plosser both have speeches schedules.

The improvement in the Equity Market was led by the Banking Sector following some positive quotes from Warren Buffet regarding the Health of American banks. The consumer credit number surprised at $21.4 Bln vs. expectations of $9.8 Bln. This was the largest gain in a decade behind growing demand for autos and educational financing. At 1:00 PM there is a $32 Bln 3-year Treasury auction.

Treasuries continued their winning ways, finishing up for the sixth consecutive week, marking the longest winnning streak since June of 2011. The yield on the 10 year has fallen from 2.399% in March to 1.931% which was Friday’s close. US Economic growth data for the first quarter was released on Friday, below economist’s forecast of 2.6%. The actual data, 2.2% represented a slowdown from the 3% posted during the prior recent quarter (Q4). Today the Fed will auction $30 Bln in 3 month and $28 Bln in 6 month bills.

This morning Treasury yields dropped in the overnight session after Standard & Poor’s downgraded Spain’s credit rating echoing the week’s refrain on European Region Debt concerns.  Today’s economic releases include GDP data, personal consumption news and the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence survey – All Before 10:00 AM ET.